There was no council meeting last night. Given the break, given the pause from passage of one tax break after another, cross examination of administration witnesses, presentations by sewer and insurance experts a few matters are worthy of contemplation.

Who will be the next mayor?

We have a line up. Tom Henry is already running and only a calamity will keep him from leading the Democratic ballot, while on the Republican side a yawner shaping up: Paula Hughes is fading, Liz Brown has made her splash with little follow up, Mitch Harper is…well, Mitch Harper is very hard to read, and Eric Doden is treading water. No excitement. None.

A year ago Tom Henry looked very vulnerable. Little seemed to be going right for him, but a cautionary note was sounded by a Republican councilman: “if he gets a big payout on the I&M deal he will look golden.” He did and he does. The city is not in the throes of layoffs, the administration is not closing parks, just the opposite, new ideas are presented to council each week for their consideration. For most of us Fort Wayne is in fine shape. The city, like Scrooge McDuck, is wallowing in a $100 million surplus, what more needs to be said. While famed financial analysts are predicting a quickening pace of governmental collapse and default due to dwindling revenues Fort Wayne has the luxury of calmly contemplating how to invest in our future. Tom Henry (thanks to Graham Richard, Ivan Lebamoff, Tim Haffner, Pat Roller, etc), will have a hundred lines for his campaign brochures ranging from “I cut your taxes” to “It’s a Sunny Day in Fort Wayne.” He closed the deal.

Henry already has a sizable campaign war chest and should be most concerned that the line of contractors bellying up to pay to play doesn’t get him in trouble. Need I mention Matt Kelty? The campaign finance reports will make interesting reading.

Paula Hughes wants to run Fort Wayne but announced in New Haven. As president of council council she was already seen as an outsider, so the announcement cemented that “barbarians at the gates” image, or just the suggestion that many more mistakes would follow under the Hughes Administration. The one word that is repeated by politicos when referring to Paula’s campaign is “uninspiring.” On her web page and in her announcement she spoke of jobs and economic development. Everybody speaks of economic development. It is part of the mantra, it is the call from pulpit that is expected to illicit response from the congregation. It is becoming a cliche, meaningless, a slogan empty of substance. Give me a specific or two or three or four. What do you mean by economic development? Show me specifics!

Same with Councilwoman Liz Brown. She announced recently her intentions to take over city government. More economic development, more attention to business development, more services for neighborhoods…and, and, lower taxes. That’s novel. Two telling votes were against neighborhood wishes so they are not moved, the city already is on knee pads to help business relocate or expand, and economic development is a throw-away phrase. Mrs. Brown may have a warm and reassuring personality, but it does not come through at council where she is very aggressive with her fellow council members and with most people who testify at the table. She has not won may friends, and that is the essence of being a mayor, consensus building. It is one thing to be the one in an eight to one vote, to wave the finger in the air and make an arcane point, but in leading a city a higher level of team-building is essential. She who torches common ground will have a very hard time reaping a harvest.

Eric Doden. Hmmm. Comes from a wealthy background. Ambassador Steel. Father made a million. Just moved to town. Now, he wants to take over our city. I value John McGauley’s judgement greatly. Mr. McGauley might make a fine mayor someday, so when John says that I would really enjoy Eric I believe him. I would expect Eric however, a la Liz Brown, to serve a term on council to learn the ropes. She, to her great credit, has jumped in to government head first, sometime feet first. She is in the process of becoming an expert on city government and it be to our detriment to lose her on council. Doden should do the same. Learn the departments, learn the budget, learn the players, gain some “cred.” It is always nice to have new blood, new ideas, new energy, but Eric has not learned the basics, let alone the nuances that determine success or failure of a city. Why do some city’s rise while some fall…Chicago, Detroit, Gary, Pittsburgh. Leadership.

The wild card is Mitch Harper. Mitch knows almost every living thing in Allen County. He has a thousand stories to tell on any given topic. He knows where the bones are buried, literally. So, will he run? There are plenty of people -friends, relatives, blogs, passers by, barmaids, politicos and the rank and file- who would love to see him run. He is one of the smartest politicians in Indiana, bar none. He is as nice to little old ladies as one could ever expect. He is nice to everyone. Beside the personality to be mayor he has the experience, he also is very, very politically savvy and would probably not hire a lobbyist to push gambling while telling the rest of us of his neutrality.

Harper, in short, would make a superb mayor. Mr. Harper, however, is taking a long time to decide. Targets do not stand still forever.

Regardless of who runs the numbers, the raw numbers favor Republican candidates. With the annexation of Aboite Township neighborhoods the balance of power shifted to the Republican column. Matt Kelty would be mayor today, but his campaign was as inept as one could ever imagine. Tom Henry, then outside politics, holding now power base, a former councilman who had been tossed overboard by his neighbors, was able to rise from the dead and become mayor.

Public sentiment is not for a law-and-order type, not for a dynamic reformer, not for a moral imperative, at the moment, a steady hand at the helm is valued. November of 2011 could however, call for another sort of candidate and personality.

Right now, Tom Henry is odds on to win. He is a steady hand. Money, reputation, personality and respect all favor him. Only Mitch Harper can match or exceed him on those points, and Mitch seems to have retreated to the side lines.

So, unless Tom Henry does something untoward, unless Liz Brown comes up with a hot and defining issue, there will be no reason to change.

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Well, John Crawford. He offered his support to me when I fought the changes to Calhoun Street, so our last contact was as allies. I also was a strong supporter of a downtown ballpark, so he voted as I probably would have, and I loath smoking, so I have only a few qualms about his effort to force health on us. Additionally, the chats I had with him during his tenure on council informed me that he was very astute, well educated, deeply caring about Fort Wayne and tough.

So, after council the other night I heard that he had formed an exploratory committee for the purpose of raising funds. There was no indication whether the campaign would be for the nomination for mayor or a run at council seat. John Crawford lives northeast, in Tom Smith’s district, if I am correct. That is a non-starter. Smith has no baggage and is no push-over. Mr. Smith has not done anything untoward a la Matt Kelty that would sully his reputation and leave good, honest voters distrustful or open to change. I just doubt he would take on an incumbent fellow Republican in the primary.

Would Mr. Crawford run at-large again? Tough. If he runs at large he has to get through the Republican primary, which he could do, then appear on the fall ballot as the third Republican. Then, he would have to knock off one of the incumbents, John Shoaff, Liz Brown or Marty Bender, to regain his old seat. Tough, but John is a spectacularly good fund raiser. Mrs. Brown is probably the most vulnerable. Her personality is caustic, not especially good trait for the glad-handing expected at each front porch on the campaign trail. He could win, but does he want to be one of nine?

That leaves mayor. Like a scad more Republicans he sees Tom Henry as vulnerable, but that is not highest hurdle, that is the primary. Can he defeat Paula Hughes? Probably. Can he defeat Nelson Peters or John McGauley. Probably. Can he defeat Mitch Harper. Very tough. Mitch is a very strong campaigner, well known, well respected and acceptable to the widest range of the Republican Party for a number of reasons: his friendly personality, his long service to the party, his genuine willingness to listen to all, and his ability to win. The ratio of Republicans to Democrats in Fort Wayne, thanks to Paul Helmke, favors the Republicans. Mayor Henry won because Matt Kelty made so many mistakes, not because there was a clamor for Democrat party leadership. There are simply more Rs in the city than Ds which gives any reputable Republican the edge. The real battle will be in the primary.

Kevin Leininger in his recent News Sentinel interview with Mr. Crawford noted that the doctor could not run a practice and serve as mayor, simultaneous, but added that Mr. Crawford did not need to work any longer, thanks to good investments. Given the recent history of the markets that alone should qualify him for some exalted position.

My guess is Mr. Crawford will bide his time, raise money and then decide next year which office he would like to hold. His success with investments might suggest an alternative path in which he might be substantially more valuable to the community: city controller.

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It was a fresh start last night, all smiles, laughter, joking. City council had not been in session for three weeks and members greeted each other as old friends, almost like a class reunion.

The affable Sandy Kennedy, our city clerk, gaveled down the meeting which was held primarily to elect a new president and vice president. The results were obviously choreographed well before last night. Outgoing president Smith nominated Marty Bender, it was quickly seconded by a gaggle of voices, Glynn Hines closed nominations and Sandy called the vote. Unanimous. Same thing for the vice presidential chair. Mitch Harper was nominated, seconded, and elected in about seven seconds. Whoosh. No bickering, no finger pointing, no debates meandering into ancillary territory. Just a back room deal cut and dried well in advance of the meeting. That’s the way it has most often worked. There is more debate and discussion on citizen appointees to obscure boards and commissions.

Among the other highlights of the meeting were the singing of the national anthem by Tom Didier, who is renowned for his interpretation at Komet games, an occasional Tin Caps match and other public events around the town. His voice filled the room and then some. At times I bemused that he might blow President Washington off the wall. He was loud.

The mayor also showed up in his annual visit to council. Deputy mayor Greg Purcell, Controller Pat Roller and a couple more from the administration were there. The mayor spoke for less than three minutes and said nothing important. In summation: last year was tough, this year will be tough, we can work together, I have an open door policy. There was nothing uplifting about the message. It was somber. The mayor had the floor, had cameras on him, had the eyes of city council, reporters, etc, and what he said could have been delivered by almost anyone in his administration with about the same effect. It was an opportunity lost.

It seems the Republicans firmly believe this coming mayoral election is theirs to win. They have good reason to so believe. The raw D vs R numbers in Fort Wayne favor Republicans. Split the independent vote and the Republicans win going away. So, Republican money people are searching for a candidate. County Council member Paula Hughes has already expressed her intentions to be mayor. She has not, apparently, excited many Republicans beyond her own circle. John McGauley has run a very effective Recorders’ office and is rumored to be interested. He is every bit as affable as Sandy Kennedy, who beat him handily last election, and has management experience. He is also a conservative-moderate-liberal who appeals to a wide range of people because he is approachable and not an ideologue. Mitch Harper is another potential candidate. He is now the vice president of council and is probably going to be council president next year during the municipal election year. He is seen as smart, experienced, very thoughtful, no push over (by any means) and
grounded with conservative-libertarian values that hold him in great stead in generally conservative Fort Wayne. With his experience in the state legislature and his consummate campaigning skills he has to be considered the early favorite. Tom Smith’s name also comes up frequently. He has been, for the last couple of years, the voice of the Republican Party in Fort Wayne. He often gave plain spoken rebuttal to Mayor Henry’s proposals. He, Harper and councilman John Shoaff often voted together against a variety of projects they deemed fiscally irresponsible. The were often defeated by six to three votes, including Marty Bender, who runs as a Republican but frequently voted with the Democrats and in line with the proposals of his mayor and boss. Smith should also be given consideration.

But, the election is over a year away. In the coming year Mayor Henry could save the city in another flood, bring a major new employer to town, rise above some turbulent situation to be seen as a great leader. He has not done so to date, but he could…really. On the other side, one of more of the Republicans could be embarrassed by one event or another. The Appalachian Trail is not that far away.

So, council was all sweetness and light last night, Mr. Bender got through his first meeting as president without a great faux pas, and the next week seating and committee assignments will be offered. Watch to see who gets finance.

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So, I looked through the list of derelict properties the county wishes to sell. I picked out a dozen or so streets to cruise in search of that gem in the rough. Dog and I bundled into the car, I put the list on the seat next to me with a route map to keep the trip efficient and concise. There were two stops on North Anthony that intrigued me. The numbers suggested good location, so we started there. Wow. Very nice houses. Both had lovely paint jobs, nice curtains in the window, good looking cars in the drive. Hmmm. I made a mark to call the county about those two. Something either was very wrong or I had found the diamond in the first shovel full. On to the next property. It was more of what I had expected. Boarded windows and the signs of long neglect. The foundation was lined with small and medium trees pushing skyward.

The next two places, both on Broadway, were close to a property I already own. I am a landlord. I stared at them. Unlike the Anthony properties these might just qualify. The Anthony properties must be an obvious mistake, I thought. So, I parked across the street from the addresses and surveyed the roof for wear, the foundation for bows and the rest of the exterior for missing storms, deteriorating paint, porch posts leaning precariously out of alignment. The paint job was in need of a redo, but otherwise the houses looked worthy of an inspection. My confusion grew though, because I spotted behind each house a garage and decent looking cars. Hmmm.

I traveled on. I found vacant lots, boarded houses, lonely garages to houses that had been consumed by time and neglect.

I also noted that street names were misspelled and some addresses listed did not exist.

I thought to call the county to clarify the situation. I had questions.

Yellow pages. Building Department. 449 7131 A robot answered. “Welcome to the Allen County IBR System. If you would like to talk to an operator press 0.” Each word was disjointed from the next. The presentation sounded like an early 1970s parody of prototypical systems, the worst of the experimental models. After enjoying a short chuckle and scratching my head about county government, I pushed 0 to talk with a human. I got a zombie. The poor woman who answered sounded in need of some iron supplements. Droll, bland, lifeless. Hold a mirror to her mouth and a slight fog would form, hold it to her face and there might not be a reflection…zombie and vampire together, but vampires have energy and verve. I asked zombie for the person in charge of the program dealing with the derelict property on the list I had been given by same office a couple months back. “They’re on vacation until December 30th,” the zombie slowly recited. Perhaps her voice had been used for the robot phone system, I wondered. Then, I wondered to her, out loud, whether someone else might be able to advise me. “No,” she drolled. No explanation, no offer of further assistance, just “no.” I thanked her and called Bill Brown, our affable commissioner, to leave a humorous message about my interesting experience. I don’t blame Bill.

Okay, we all know the county gets by on the cheap when it comes to customer service, that is dealing with the taxpaying public. But the phone system is laughable and not the sort of message that I would wish anyone to associate with my community.

Secondly, I was trying to buy derelict property. Property that was off of the tax rolls. I would refurbish it and put it back on the tax rolls. One would think that the county would have a back up in place when the person running the program takes a month plus a few days away. Just a thought. Zombie might also have invited me to leave my number, but she didn’t. I handed her the ball and she dropped it right on my toes. Zombie hung up. Perhaps to pay for the robot they have cut the post it note budget. Perhaps zombie can not write. Whatever. No private sector business I know would do any of what I have mentioned above and last long in the market place. Messy list, bad addresses, indifferent zombie, ludicrous answering system and a heavily dropped ball.

Oh, well, how do you encourage county government to reverse decades of indifference to the public? I called Bill Brown. I will also mention it to John McGauley. He and Bill seem to get it.

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