~ Angry White Boy ~ » Dan Coats

New poll predicts Stutzman and Coats to win

AWB — Tue, 26 Oct 2010 21:10:25 +0000

A new poll is out. It was contracted by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics with SurveyUSA to conduct a statewide poll in Indiana and one in Indiana’s third congressional district.

Republican Dan Coats holds a commanding lead over Democrat Brad Ellsworth in the race for Senate in Indiana, and does so in almost every demographic category. Fifty-six percent of men and 51% of women who were called support Coats. Coats’ substantial advantage also crosses all levels of education and all age groups, including a 46% – 33% gap in 18-34 years old.

Ellsworth holds a slim lead (40% – 39%) among those who almost never attend church, but lags considerably among those who attend church a few times a year, once or twice a month, almost weekly, and weekly.

Democrat Tom Hayhurst trails Republican Marlin Stutzman significantly among likely and early voters in Indiana’ s third congressional district. Stutzman has the support of a majority of voters in every single demographic category except for those who have a graduate education (Stutzman 47% Hayhurst 46%) and among those who go to church three-to-four times a year (tied at 46%).

These two groups, along with people who go to church once or twice a month, are the only demographic groups where Hayhurst reaches 40%. Even among voters who have been important sources of Democratic support in recent American election cycles, Stutzman polls very well. Among women, he leads Hayhurst 54% to 34% and among voters 18-34 and 35-49, where he receives 62% support among likely or early voters.

Download the entire results in a Exel file here.

Statement of M ethodology for Statewide I ndiana Survey:

SurveyUSA interviewed 2,335 registered voters 10/21/10 through 10/25/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 1,600 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 midterm election. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to the voter registration database. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error.

These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ

Statement of M ethodology for U.S. House 3rd District of I ndiana:

SurveyUSA interviewed 565 registered voters from Indiana’s 3rd Congressional District 10/21/10 through 10/25/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 400 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 midterm election. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to the voter registration database. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ

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Ellsworth Took Highest Percentage of Special Interest Cash in Nation

AWB — Wed, 13 Oct 2010 17:28:47 +0000

The Center for Responsive Politics recently reported Ellsworth “is the only Senate candidate to collect a majority of his funds from PACs.”

Ellsworth Claims to Be Against Special Interests
»Ellsworth Said Special Interests Have Too Much Power in An E-mail to Supporters – Congressman Ellsworth said, “You have a choice in this election. It’s a choice between…helping the special interests or fighting for everyday Hoosiers.” (Brad Ellsworth, “Now is the Time.” E-mail to supporters, 9/29/10)

»Ellsworth Repeated the Line in His First Television Ad – Congressman Ellsworth said, “Because the special interests and lobbyists already have enough senators on their side.” (Ellsworth for Indiana Commercial, “At Stake.” Ellsworth for Indiana 2010 YouTube Page, Accessed 10/7/10)

Ellsworth Has Received the Highest Percentage of Special Interest Money Among U.S. Senate Candidates in the Entire Country
»Independent Source Verifies Majority of Ellsworth’s Campaign Funds Have Come from Special Interests – “The Senate candidate with the highest percentage is Brad Ellsworth, who has collected 52 percent of his campaign funds from PACs. Ellsworth is also is the only Senate candidate to collect a majority of his funds from PACs.” (Evan Mackinder, “Many House Incumbents Heavily Relying on PAC Cash for 2010 Re-election Bids.” Center for Responsive Politics, 9/29/10)

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It’s buh-bye to Bayh’s seat

AWB — Fri, 07 May 2010 17:04:55 +0000

This just came out.

Newly chosen Republican nominee Dan Coats earns 51% support while his Democratic rival Brad Ellsworth’s attracts 36% in the first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Indiana Senate race following Tuesday’s GOP Primary.

More here.

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Breaking: Dan Coats earned $821,877 in 2009

AWB — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 20:52:07 +0000

No opinion yet. More later. No related posts. No related posts.

Survey USA Poll shows Coats behind contenders

AWB — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 21:14:47 +0000

UPDATE: we’ll post the questions that were asked in a bit.

A recent SurveyUSA Poll show Dan Coats trailing two of his opponents in the Indiana US Senate race.

The poll was conducted late last week, and we’ve been given an advance of some of the data, but cannot post the results until it becomes public. What we can tell you is it does not look good for the NRSC shoe-in, Mr. Coats. Both Hostettler and Stutzman are polling ahead of Coats. Behney and Bates are gnats on the radar screen. And this just in earlier today..

GOP Senate candidate Dan Coats loaned his campaign $200,000 last week. Coats earlier loaned it $25,000, money he promised to provide as start-up funds.

State Democratic Chairman Dan Parker sees the new loan as a sign of trouble for the presumed front runner in the GOP primary. Coats spokesman Pete Seat, meantime, says it’s a bridge between pledges and deposits.

Coats filed the required paperwork to report the loan on time. He still hasn’t filed his overdue personal financial disclosure forms but Seat has news there, too. “The form has been filled out,” he says. “It is now being checked thoroughly to ensure its accuracy and completeness before filing prior to the primary.”

Will it show that Coats has $200,000 fewer assets than if he reported on time?

In other news, Evan Bayh is about to announce his run for president in 2012. Watch for it.

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Liars about lying

AWB — Fri, 23 Apr 2010 14:32:56 +0000

Josh Gillespie at Hoosier Access has a story regarding Marlin Stutzman this morning that needs addressing.

While Josh officially states Coats’ is not his candidate, his blogging speaks volumes that he’s obviously doing some work for Hostettler, or has some sort of personal vendetta for Stutzman and/or some of his campaign staff.

This morning he writes :

It’s been widely reported that Marlin Stutzman raised $125,000 in the first quarter of this year and had $50-70k cash on hand. In fact, he’s admitted as much on several occasions and it’s happened at least six times over the last three weeks.

[...]

The problem is, it’s all false.

Stutzman keeps saying he raised $125,000 in the first quarter and had $70,000 on hand. Truth be told he only raised $78,260.52 and had only $14,227.21 on hand according to his FEC report. Even the Evansville Courier Press caught on to Marlin’s misleading numbers.

Problem is for Josh and the Coats & Hostettler flacks, it’s true. There’s a difference between what a candidate has raised and what a candidate’s office has received by the filing date. If it hasn’t arrived yet, you cannot report it.

Marlin had $125K committed to his campaign in the first quarter. Only $78k of that had apparently reached the campaign office by the filing deadline, so that is what was reported. The balance came in after the filing date. Marlin was telling the truth and actually filed accurately, and, unlike candidates Coats, Hostettler, Bates & Behney, Marlin actually took the time to file.

Any good journalist or blogger would ask questions before accusing a candidate of lying.

Pot, meet kettle.

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Local staffer for Dan Coats using lies and deceit

AWB — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 20:40:35 +0000

I’m sure Dan Coats doesn’t have time to check his local staffer’s Twitter and Facebook activity. Maybe he should.

The local contact here in Fort Wayne at Dan Coats’ office is Paul Lagemann. I’ve heard differing opinions about him and didn’t really have one myself until he started spreading lies about Marlin Stutzman.

Lagemann has been trying to convince Marlin supporters using a couple of lies. Here’s a screen shot of one below from his Twitter account.

Lagemann knows that Maverick Strategies has nothing to do with Stutzman’s campaign, yet he even goes to the point of providing a link. They’re a left wing political consulting firm based in Arlington, VA., and Paul is making it his mission to misinform Stutzman supporters on social networks that Stutzman is using their services.

The firm that Stutzman uses is Maverick Campaigns, based in Indianapolis and ran by Jason Kneeland and Mike Gentry, two experienced and dedicated conservatives.

Lagemann is continuing to not only push the Maverick ploy, he’s also insinuating that Stutzman has somehow broken the law. During a recent FaceBook conversation with a Stutzman supporter, he accused the Stutzman campaign of improprieties and closed the conversation with this.

“I’d hate to see Marlin’s career ended the way Matt Kelty’s was.”

Word to Coats. Bad choice.

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Coats’ spin doctors cooking up a pot of half-truths

AWB — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 19:09:29 +0000

Based on the Dan Coats campaign’s press release this morning, it seems they’re having a hard time delineating the truth.

Here’s a piece emailed earlier today by Dan Coats’ newly hired spin doctor, Pete Seat.

Key Indiana Conservatives On Dan Coats

(INDIANAPOLIS, March 8, 2010) – Recently, Conservative Hoosier leaders have recognized Dan Coats is the best candidate to utilize common sense Hoosier values to tackle the irresponsible spending sprees, mounting debt and security challenges brought about by our Nation’s current Democratic leadership.

Nicely worded, no? From the sound of this statement, “Hoosier leaders have recognized Dan Coats is the best candidate,” you would think political leaders across the state were standing in line to endorse Mr. Coats.

Governor Mitch Daniels: “He’s got a real following in the state. He deserves to. He was a really, really good senator.” (Howey Politics Indiana, 2/24/10)

Attorney General Greg Zoeller: “I think what Sen. Coats brings to the race is just a different level of experience. It’s really a different level of candidacy.” (Politico, 2/13/10)

These are both accurate quotes. However, neither one of them have endorsed Coats’ as a candidate. As a matter of fact, Daniels actually had this to say about the senate race on Politico only days before.

“I have never involved myself in primaries, and I won’t in this one,” Daniels said when asked if he planned to endorse the frontrunner, former Sen. Dan Coats.

And here’s a catchy tagline.

Dan’s Chances Against the Anointed Democrat

Congressman Mark Souder: “He’s our best chance to win,” (Journal Gazette, 2/4/10)

Isn’t this the pot calling the kettle black? Afterall, the National Republican Senatorial Committee ~~handpicked~~ anointed Mr. Coats our candidate and sent him from Washington back to Indiana.

Pete Seat has years of experience writing for the Indianapolis Star, the Arizona Daily Star, the Tucson Citizen and The Times of NW Indiana. Like most journalist, Pete has learned the art of taking quotes out of context.

From the dictionary:

half-truth
n.
A statement, especially one intended to deceive, that omits some of the facts necessary for a full description or account.

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Stutzman wins straw poll, Coats dead last

AWB — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 17:01:16 +0000

Yesterday, a debate was held between the republican U.S. senatorial candidates. It was by the held by the Kosciusko County tea party group, Kosciusko Silent No More.

Of the 400 that made it into the Center Lake Pavilion to hear the standing room only debate, 237 people participated in a non-scientific straw poll.

Overall vote:

Marlin Stutzman 80
Richard Behney 76
Don Bates Jr. 47
John Hostettler 18
Dan Coats 16

Kosciusko County residents:

Marlin Stutzman 39
Don Bates Jr. 20
Richard Behney 15
John Hostettler 7
Dan Coats 3

It appears that Mr. Coats doesn’t have the “inside track” some think. It’s that incumbent thing, hanging around his neck like a scarlet letter.

While I agree with many of the stances the Tea Party groups have taken, this isn’t one of them.

From the Indy Defenders of Liberty group email listserv:

I have contacted the Indiana Republican office with my views on Coats and just sent an e-mail to John Cornyn. If enough people make it clear they are damaging the Republican name by backing Coats maybe we could get them to change their stance. I borrowed a line from the website you listed and let him know that many Republicans may have no choice but to hold their nose and vote for Ellsworth if Coats is our only other choice. That is my nightmare–a choice between those two–I have had to deal with Ellsworth for two years and have met with him–he is not informed at all on any issues I brought up and is nothing more than a complete Pelosi follower.

I assume when they refer to “the Indiana Republican office” they’re talking about the state GOP. It should be noted, the Indiana Republican Party has not endorsed any candidate in this race.

I understand how they feel about Coats. But to threaten to vote for a democrat is patently absurd, especially one as liberal as Brad Ellsworth.

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What are Dan Coats’ people afraid of?

AWB — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 23:59:37 +0000

Dan Coats’ has a web site located here. It’s a well-known fact I do not support his candidacy for U.S. Senate.

I’ve signed up for email updates several times, but I’ve not received any. Many of our readers have received them and forwarded them to me.

I’ve signed up using emails that they can specifically attribute to me. I’m being scrubbed from the database. I suppose they’re following the Saul Alinsky credo of, “know your enemy.”

Starting Monday, the Coats campaign have a new press secretary, Pete Seat. It looks like he’s started his new job early.

———- Forwarded message ———-
From: Pete Seat <peteseat@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, Feb 27, 2010 at 4:20 PM
Subject: RELEASE: Coats: Immediate Action on Jobs, Security

Contact: Kevin Kellems, 317-677-6688 kevin@strategycenter.us
Pete Seat, 520-990-4067 peteseat@gmail.com

This email was sent to @gmail.com by peteseat@gmail.com.
Update Profile/Email Address | Instant removal with SafeUnsubscribe™ | Privacy Policy.

I don’t know Pete. From his bio – he’s been an MSNBC political commentator, served as Deputy Assistant Press Secretary working for Tony Snow, and has a Bachelor of Arts degree in Theatre Arts from the University of Arizona.

Given that Pete just started the job, it’s most likely that he’s not responsible.

Chicken shits.

I guess I’m going to have to signup with one of my 100 or so other email addresses.

No related posts.

Need a laugh?

AWB — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 21:59:07 +0000

Go here, then come back and comment. http://dancoatsbellyflop.blogspot.com/ Related posts:Former Congressman Dan Coats to challenge Evan Bayh? According to Howey Politics, former Fort Wayne resident Dan Coats... Local staffer for Dan Coats using lies and deceit I’m sure Dan Coats doesn’t have time to check his... New poll predicts Stutzman and Coats to win A [...] Related posts:

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Three Pols walk into a bar

Conservative Professor — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 23:36:01 +0000

Evan Bayh, Marlin Stutzman and John Hostetler walk into a bar.

They belly-up and the first one says, “I’m Marlin Stutzman and I’m running for Senate, give me a drink.”

The second one says “”I’m John Hostettler and I’m running for Senate, give me a drink”

The third one says “Hmm.. I’m Dan coats and people tell me that sounds like a good idea. Me, too.”

In the next seat was the RNSC representative. “Great, so it’s official!”

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Bayh -v- Coats >> open thread

AWB — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 21:32:57 +0000

I’m not buying the crap floating around the blogosphere, Twitter or Facebook that say we need to stand by the party and support Dan Coats. I have serious issues. What say you? I will have an analysis, hopefully tomorrow. Related posts:Former Congressman Dan Coats to challenge Evan Bayh? According to Howey Politics, former Fort Wayne [...] Related posts:

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Choice between a douche and a turd sandwich

AWB — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 21:44:18 +0000

Pardon the title, it’s fitting.

The mainstream media and the democrats are having a field day with Dan Coats’ announcement he’s testing the waters for a run against Evan Bayh. The tea party types are pissed off and they’re expressing it. Conservative politicos are also angry, but afraid to say anything.

Mr. Coats has spent the last decade as a special interest lobbyist in Washington, D.C. He’s registered to vote there, not in Indiana. And now the RNC & NRSC are attempting to shove him down our throats. They’re even paying $2 a signature for petitioners to get Coats on ballot. I hope one of them come knocking on my door.

While Coats served us well during his time in the house, IMHO, he’s not the guy we need to take on Evan Bayh.

Scott Fluhr at Hoosier Pundit pretty well summed it up when it comes to the Tea Party sentiment:

I am not sure how somebody that is a lobbyist for a bank that got TARP money (that’s three strikes against in one in the eyes of the Tea Party folks) is going to “tap into the Tea Party energy and immediately draw close to Bayh.”

Coats may have some appeal to them that I haven’t seen yet; it’s still early.

Tea Parties are all about citizens taking back their government. How does Dan Coats fit into that framework?

And now we bring you, turd sandwich via South Park.

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