Here’s how I see this playing out, up to the last vote, but not including it. Nothing scientific here.
Eliminated in the first round with less than 5% of the vote each:
Lonnie Powell
Greg Dickman
Mike Foster
Rachel Grubb
Richard Thonert
Scott Welsh
Bob Morris
Dennis Wright
Joe Schomburg
Eliminated in the second round with less than 10% of the vote
Bob Thomas
Wes Culver
Ryan Elijah
Eliminated in the third round
Randy Borror
And that will leave…
Liz Brown
Marlin Stutzman
What’s your spin?
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I think it doesn't matter what the people want – it's in the hands of Steve Shine and his friends.
Not this time.
Why is that? Why is this nomination any different?
Any different than what? This is a caucus.
I think you pretty much nailed it. My swag, final outcome will be in favor of Marlin.
Check out the results of the only scientific poll conducted so far on this race, as reported Thursday night by FOX Fort Wayne News: http://fortwaynehomepage.net/fulltext/?nxd_id=271…
Ya, so the people don't even get a vote. It's all up to the commitee.
INC interviewed some candidates last night. Not Liz. Not Marlin. Not even Borror. Guess who led the interviews?
Yep, their prophet of newsroom.
Seems unseemly to me, but maybe I just expect objectivity from the local flybymedia – delusional as that is.
Great job, Daniel. Excellent reporting on the events leading up to tomorrow's caucus and very much appreciated.
INC is interviewing all candidates. Liz Brown, Wes Culver, & Richard Thonert were on Tuesday. Wednesday was Borror, Foster, & Dickman. Marlin Stutzman, Lonnie Powell, & Joe Schomburg are up tonight. Seems objective to me.
I think that you are close on this. I often have the same thoughts. But Ryan Elijah is wrongly underestimated. He actually has a decent chance of making it to the final round, which gives him a shot at winning it. The more I met with him after the IPFW forum, the more I became impressed with him. If he gets close enough to speak directly with enough PCs, he will peel away votes from the top 3.
As for those people who think that this caucus is going to be manipulated by Steve Shine or other Allen County insiders, you are wrong. The local Fort Wayne candidates are at a disadvantage here. They will split the Fort Wayne / Allen County votes and someone from outside the county will win. The exception which may surprise everyone is Ryan Elijah. He's the Allen County candidate who can appeal to more voters out side, simply because he is not a "Fort Wayne politician" or one of the "Fort Wayne insiders".
Ryan Elijah may be familiar face and look great on TV, but I don't think that's enough for folks. He is virtually unknown in an Obama sort of way. His connection the the District is through the TV. That's weak. I think folks are looking for someone with a connection to the district, who has a record of accomplishment, understands the issues facing the disctrict, has integrity, a core and operates undeterred on a set of conservative principles common to the folks they will represent. I'm not sure Ryan Elijah as talking head on TV, can convince enough folks he has any of these qualities before tomorrow. We'll see.
"As for those people who think that this caucus is going to be manipulated by Steve Shine or other Allen County insiders, you are wrong. The local Fort Wayne candidates are at a disadvantage here. They will split the Fort Wayne / Allen County votes and someone from outside the county will win. The exception which may surprise everyone is Ryan Elijah. He's the Allen County candidate who can appeal to more voters out side, simply because he is not a "Fort Wayne politician" or one of the "Fort Wayne insiders"."
Ryan Elijah has the best chance to win in November. See my reasoning here:
http://fortwaynepolitics.com/2010/06/my-caucus-pr…
First, we ARE NOT all “Shiners”. Many of us detest the political machine; especially the underhanded tactics. The GOP “Leader” will not dictate my views.
Secondly, I think your final prediction may miss the mark. Don’t count out Randy.